Signal of the week: Long-term holders now hold 45% of their supply (7.47 million BTC) at a loss — the worst result for this cohort since 2019. Their realized profit-and-loss ratio also hit its lowest point since the US banking crisis of March 2023.
Six months into the year, the cohort that has been absorbing nearly every wave of selling pressure is showing cracks. Long-term holders started selling into weakness this week — not in large size, but for the first time in months.
About the Bitcoin Impact Index
The Bitcoin Impact Index measures which groups of Bitcoin holders are under financial stress, how severe that stress is, and whether it’s severe enough to shake confidence in the market’s direction. It combines on-chain holder behaviour, ETF and derivatives activity, and exchange-level liquidity flows into a single weekly score between 0 and 100. Unlike sentiment indicators, it deliberately excludes social media and volume data to focus on what participants are doing rather than what they are saying.
Score bands:
- Normal Rotation (0–24) — routine profit-taking, no structural shift
- Elevated Repositioning (25–49) — specific groups shifting positions, pressure uneven across the market
- High Impact (50–74) — broad stress across multiple holder groups and institutional flows simultaneously
- Critical Impact (75–100) — full capitulation: LTH losses, large ETF outflows, major liquidations, and heavy exchange inflows at once
Week 26 (June 22–28): BII 66.2 — High Impact
Negative signals: long-term holders crossed an important line
For the first time in 4 months, long-term holder supply actually decreased on a weekly basis — by roughly 3,000 BTC. The number itself might be relatively small, but the direction matters. After months of consistent accumulation and STH transitioning to LTH, realized selling surpassed accumulation efforts.
For the most part, long-term holders were selling into weakness. Their realized losses jumped 65% in BTC terms over the week, and exceeded realized profits by nearly three times. As a result, their realized profit-and-loss (P/L) ratio is now at its worst level since the U.S. banking crisis in March 2023.
This significantly impacted the split in long-term holder supply. 55% of long-term holder Bitcoin remains in profit, while 45% — roughly 7.47 million BTC — is now underwater. That is the highest share of long-term holder supply in loss since 2019. For a cohort that has spent the year absorbing nearly every wave of selling pressure from everyone else, this is the first real sign that their own conviction is being tested.
Negative signals: institutional and derivatives stress deepened sharply
ETF outflows hit $1.79 billion — the second largest single-week outflow in history. This indicates that investors adopted a stronger risk-off stance amid the AI selloff and quarter-end rebalancing. Short-term holders also weakened further, with their realized P/L falling below –0.84.
Long liquidations made up 80% of total liquidations, continuing the pattern of leveraged bulls bearing the brunt of forced closures. Daily volume of total liquidations nearly doubled from the prior week.&
What could happen next
From a technical analysis perspective, there is an interesting tension. Bitcoin is showing bullish divergence on both RSI and MACD across daily and weekly timeframes — a pattern that has historically preceded broader recoveries. At the same time, the MACD on both timeframes is at or near a bearish crossover. This suggests the market could see more downside before the bullish divergence potentially leads to a recovery.
The 200-week SMA near $62,500 is the level that matters most right now. Lower timeframes suggest Bitcoin is likely to retest it soon. If bulls reclaim it and sustain above it, $66,000 becomes the next target. If they fail, history offers a warning. In 2022, Bitcoin also failed to reclaim the 200-week SMA in a similar situation, and this extended the bear market by several months before the final bottom formed. If that pattern repeats, the next major support level is around $54,000.
The level to watch most closely remains $62,000. A sustained break below it would test whether the “coiled spring” reading is right, or whether the deteriorating LTH SOPR is the more important signal after all.
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